NEWS & STATS

Cup Preview: Sunoco Red Cross Pennsylvania 500

By Brian Polking

July 27, 2010 7:45 AM ET

For the second time this season, the Cup Series team will battle the 2.5-mile tri-oval known as Pocono Raceway, but this time, Chase hopes are hanging in the balance. With just six races remaining before the 2010 Chase for the Sprint Cup, it is crunch time for drivers and teams. Drivers in the back half of the top 12 are fighting to stay there, and drivers outside the top 12 want to knock them out. Even the drivers in great position to make the Chase are trying desperately to get a few more victories before the playoffs start.

David Reutimann knows all too well how a trip to Pocono can spell the end to a driver's Chase hopes. A tap from Denny Hamlin sent Reutimann's No. 00 spinning and left him with a deficit he was never able to overcome. Kyle Busch saw his playoffs chances dashed at the track. His 16th-place finish would ultimately be the difference in competing for a title a racing for 13th.

The track can help a driver's Chase chances as well, especially when that driver is Denny Hamlin. He won this race last year, notching his third career win at the track. Earlier this season, he added to that win total with another dominating performance. Sitting third in points, Hamlin isn't exactly in need a win to secure his place in the Chase. However, a victory would give him a series-leading six and make him the frontrunner to start the Chase in first place.

The number of contenders for the Chase is shrinking. Entering Sunday's race at Pocono, only two drivers are within 100 points of 12th-place Clint Bowyer. Mark Martin is 62 points back and Dale Earnhardt Jr. is 93 points back. It will take a small miracle for any other driver to crack the top 12 by Richmond. If someone is going to pull off that miracle, it has to start this weekend.

The Favorites


For the second straight race a driver has a chance at a three-peat, and Denny Hamlin has to like his chances. Hamlin has four wins at the track, and his 8.6 finishing average and 119.1 driver rating are both tops in the series. Flat tracks are his specialty, and he is the favorite every time the series heads to Pocono.

He is still winless in 2010, but Tony Stewart has been a much better driver since the calendar hit June. He has four straight top-10 finishes at Pocono, including three top- three finishes. In the past 10 races at the track, he has nine top-10 finishes. With some breathing room on a spot in top 12, Stewart can afford to gamble a bit for a win Sunday.

Another win before the Chase would be a huge boost to Kurt Busch's titles chances, and Pocono may be the perfect track to get it done. He is a two-time winner at the track, and he has finished second on four occasions as well. Busch finished sixth at the track earlier this year, and his 103.7 driver rating is the second-best mark in the series.

The Dark Horses


All three Richard Childress Racing drivers have to be considered potential threats every race right now. Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton and Clint Bowyer are coming on strong as the Chase approaches, and all three finished in the top 10 at Pocono earlier this year. Harvick is leading the points and looking for wins, but Bowyer and Burton are well on their way to making the Chase as well.

Juan Pablo Montoya recovered from last year's disappointment at Indianapolis with a second-place finish at Pocono. He will be looking to sooth some heartache again this season after blowing another golden opportunity to kiss the bricks. Montoya has finished eighth, second and eighth in his last three starts at Pocono, and with his Chase hopes gone, he has no reason not to go all out for wins.

Despite just two top-five finishes all season, Carl Edwards can't be written off as a contender this weekend. He is a two-time winner at Pocono and has an 8.4 finishing average in his last five starts at the track. Coming off finishes of second and eighth entering Sunday's race, this could be Edwards' best opportunity to date to end his winless drought.

Sleepers


As he continues to log top-15 finishes almost every week, AJ Allmendinger is setting himself up for a big 2011 season. He finished in the top 10 at Pocono earlier this year and has finished in the top 20 in four of his last five starts at the track.

His top-10 finish at Indy added to Joey Logano's incredible flat track record this season. He was running in the top five at Pocono earlier this year when he was spun by Kevin Harvick. Logano recovered to finish 13th, and he inspired a new t-shirt design with his post-race comments.

As the laps ticked away at Pocono earlier this year, Sam Hornish Jr. actually had a shot at winning the race. A late caution allowed drivers on better tires to get by him, but he still managed to finish 11th. Overall, Hornish Jr. has finishes of 10th, fourth and 11th in his last three starts at the track.

Struggling Drivers


Since finishing sixth in his Pocono debut, Marcos Ambrose has finished 30th or worse in his last two starts. Flat tracks have been good to him throughout his career, but this track has been an exception. His seven DNFs in 2010 sum up the type of luck he has had this season.

It is hard to believe that Martin Truex Jr. was a legitimate Chase contender not too long ago. A dreadful slump has long since ended his playoff hopes, and things aren't likely to get better this weekend. His best finish in his last six starts at Pocono is 15th.

The Chase chances of Dale Earnhardt Jr. are on the line every weekend, and unless he can improve his recent results at Pocono, Sunday could mark the end those chances. Junior has a 24.7 finishing average in his last three starts at the track, finishing no higher than 19th.